Mr. Deepak Agrawal

Senior Executive Vice President, Fund Management Debt

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited

Mr. Deepak Agrawal is a Post Graduate in Commerce from Mumbai University, a qualified chartered account and a company secretary. Also cleared AIMR CFA Level I. His career has started from Kotak AMC when he joined the organisation in December 2002, where he was initially in Research, Dealing and then moved into Fund Management from November 2006.

Q1. India's 10-year benchmark government bond yield logged its biggest jump in six months in October. What are the factors that you think are affecting these yields right now?

Ans: Rise in US yield was the major driver for rise in domestic bond yield apart from higher inflation for the month of September 2024. The US yield were higher by ~ 65-70 bps in the month of Oct 2024. This was driver partially by strong jobs data for the month of Sept 2024 and partially due to market discounting Trump Presidency and Grand Old Party (GOP) clean sweep.

Q2. October saw the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index. Will this attract substantial foreign investment, boosting demand for Indian bonds?

Ans: After inclusion in JP Morgan Index and Bloomberg Emerging Market Bond Index, inclusion in FTSE Emerging Bond Index is also a positive sign. It increases the probability of Indian Bonds getting included in Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index over the course of next 2 year, which can draw in substantial flow in Indian Fixed Income Market. Inclusion in FTSE Emerging Market Bond index will draw 4 Billion $ flows in Indian Fixed Income Market starting Sept 2025. Even though the quantum is relatively smaller as comparison to JP Morgan Bond Index, nonetheless it’s a positive development for the Indian Fixed Income Market.

Q3. India's fiscal deficit for April-September stood at ₹4.75 trillion, 29.4% of the estimate for 2024-25. What could be the possible reasons?

Ans: The government's spending has been lower due to general elections conducted earlier this year. Total government expenditure during the period was 21.1 trillion rupees, or about 44% of the annual goal. For the first six months, the government's capital expenditure, or spending on building physical infrastructure, was 4.15 trillion rupees, or 37% of the annual target, as against 4.9 trillion rupees for the same period a year earlier. GOI is likely to miss the budgeted capital expenditure for FY 25 by ~ 1 lakh crs. Net tax receipts for the first six months of the current financial year were 12.65 trillion rupees, or 49% of the annual target, compared with 11.6 trillion rupees for the same period last year. GOI finances also got a boost from 2.11 lakh crs dividend from RBI. The fiscal deficit target for the full is likely to be lower than 4.9% budgeted, which is positive for fixed income market.

Q4. The annual inflation rate in India rose to 5.49% in September of 2024 from 3.65% in the previous month, well above market estimates of 5%. How do you anticipate this?

Ans: Inflation for the month of September rose above 5% and for the month of October it has come above 6%. However the core inflation has been in the band of 3.6-3.70%. Inflation for September and October is largely due to vegetable inflation (tomato) which has started to cool off in the month of Nov 2024. Inflation for Q3 FY 25 is likely to be above RBI forecast, however for Q4 FY 25 Inflation is likely to be in line with RBI forecast. Inflation in Q1 FY 26 is likely to be in the band of 4.25-4.5%.

Q5. With gold prices hitting record highs recently, should investors consider increasing their exposure to gold, or is it time to book profits?

Ans: We have been advising investors to have some allocation to gold based on the advice of their investment counsellor.
We continue to remain positive on gold, given that global central banks continue to buy gold (H1 CY 24, Central bank gold purchases is 5% higher than last year), Monetary easing by Fed and given the fiscal, tariff and immigration policies of the Trump Govt is likely to push inflation higher.

Q6. How can retail investors effectively incorporate bonds into their portfolios to ensure steady income and enhance diversification?

Ans: Investors should adhere to asset allocation based on the advice of their investment counsellor. Within the fixed income allocation, debt funds are likely to outperform other traditional fixed income options due to rate cuts expected over next 1 year. As an alternative to debt scheme, Investors can also consider our Kotak Income plus arbitrage fund of fund, which invest 40% of the assets in arbitrage scheme and 60% of its assets in debt scheme. This fund is tax efficient as compared to other debt scheme.

Mr. Harsha Upadhyaya

Chief Investment Officer - Equity

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited

Harsha Upadhyaya heads the equity desk at KMAMC, and also directly manages funds such as Kotak Standard Multicap Fund, Kotak Equity Opportunities Fund and Kotak Tax Saver. Harsha has over two decades of experience spread across equity research and fund management. He has previously worked with DSP BlackRock, UTI Asset Management, Reliance Group and SG Asia Securities. Harsha completed his Bachelor of Engineering (Mechanical) from National Institute of Technology, Suratkal and holds a Post Graduate Diploma in Management (Finance) from Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow. He also holds Chartered Financial Analyst charter from the CFA Institute, US. Harsha follows various sports, and was a hockey player while at the university.

Q1. Trump won the US elections. How do you think it would impact the Indian markets? Which sectors in India could benefit out of this and which ones stand to lose the most because of this change in US president?

Ans: India has been cordial relations with both the parties in US, so our relationship with US doesn’t get impacted with Trump winning. Trump is pro business and wants spendings to move up by cutting taxes. This may lead to increased IT spendings by US corporates which is good for Indian IT. Their is also a possibility of dilution in BASEL III norms which may again spur growth spends and benefit Indian IT. Trump administration may take steps to end Russia- Ukraine war which may result in growth in the European region , which in turn is good for global markets.

Q2. Foreign investors pulled out a massive ₹94,000 crore from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows. What do you think would be the trigger for them to come back to India?

Ans: Foreign investors are pulling the money out from emerging markets to deploy in the US market. The hopes of tax rate cut to result in earnings upgrade is one big reason for this massive pullout from emerging market. Once the trade settles, investors shall realize the long term potential for Indian equity market and shall relook at their allocations again. The portfolio allocations at the start of the new year could be one such trigger point.

Q3. What is your outlook on Samvat 2081? Do you expect the Nifty to deliver double-digit returns in the upcoming year?

Ans: Samvat 2081 starts on the back of very strong returns in the market especially from COVID-19 lows. The earnings growth momentum for the next two years is still in double digits . So, it is not unreasonable to expect a similar returns from the market especially the large caps. Though, any cut in earnings for FY25/26 or a multiple derating can result in inferior returns . We are still hopeful of a low double digit return form the current levels post the recent correction in the market .

Q4. Major IT companies have reported their Q2 results, and the BSE IT index has risen over 20% in the past six months. Based on the management commentary, what trends or insights are you picking up regarding the sector's outlook?

Ans: IT companies have reported a decent pick up in deal flow especially in small and discretionary projects. Management is seeing a growth recovery in segments like BFSI, Hi-ech and retail. Companies are expecting the margins to stabilize and see an upward bias despite Q3 typically seeing high furloughs.

Q5. The festive season typically brings a surge in consumer spending. Have you observed any significant changes in consumer-driven sectors this year? Are there any particular sectors within India that have performed better or worse than expected?

Ans: The festive season has gone well as per various channel checks. The commentary from various companies is coming positive especially for the rural part of the economy. The urban centric consumption has taken a slight back seat which many are saying that shall pick up as government spending picks up pace. The impending wedding season is also giving hopes for a buoyancy returning to the consumption segment in coming months.  We have seen a sharp pickup in the festive season in segments like passenger vehicles , two wheelers and durables. Alcohol companies have also reported brisk sale . Apparel and jewelry companies also reported good sales growth.

Q6. Every bull market comes with its share of corrections, testing investors' patience along the way. What advice would you give to investors who are holding off on buying, despite having a shopping list ready? They were waiting for a dip, but now seem hesitant to take the plunge.

Ans: Over the history of Indian equity market, market has corrected by ten percent or more from its peak in almost all the calendar years. So, correction is a part of the overall market movement. One shall not get scared from corrections but may use them as an opportunity to build up portfolios for long term. In our view, if you have a five year or more time horizon in equity market, the best time to invest the money is NOW.

Mr. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo
Chief Investment Officer (CIO) - Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) Pvt. Ltd .

Mr. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo is responsible for managing fixed income assets across all products. He has over 31 years of experience in the field of financial services including 17 years of experience in Fixed Income funds management. He is overall responsible for supervising all Debt schemes of the Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) Private Limited. In his prior assignment, he has been associated with organizations like Pramerica Asset Managers Pvt. Ltd., Tata Asset Management Ltd., ABN AMRO Asset Management Ltd and ICICI Group. Mr. Jajoo manages Mirae Asset Aggressive Hybrid Fund, Mirae Asset Balanced Advantage Fund, Mirae Asset Equity Savings Fund & Mirae Mr. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo Asset Nifty SDL Jun 2028 Index Fund.

Q1. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, on October 9, decided to maintain the key repo rate at 6.5%, shifting its stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral." What are your thoughts on this change?

Ans: The change in policy stance to neutral came as a pleasant surprise, against the broader market expectations of status quo. This has reinforced expectations of commencement of a rate cut cycle soon. Also, timelines on rate cuts by most analysts is also shifting towards December 24 from early 2025.

Q2. What key economic indicators are you monitoring that could impact fixed income markets in the coming months?

Ans: Some of the key monitorables for MPC and fixed income markets remains inflation, growth and global developments (geopolitics and global central bank actions). Apart from these key factors, it is also essential to keep track of the speeches from the monetary committee members in order the gauge the direction the policy can take in near term.

Q3. The 10-year Indian benchmark yield decreased by about 13 basis points, while the 5-year yield fell by roughly 8 basis points. What could be the possible reasons for this fall?

Ans: As mentioned above the change in stance came in against the market expectations. In such situation the longer end is likely to react more aggressively than the shorter end in expectations of rate cuts. Therefore, longer end witnessed drop of 13bps vs 8bps in 5Y.

Q4. What strategies are you employing to manage risks in your fixed income portfolio as market conditions evolve?

Ans: Our portfolios are carefully constructed taking liquidity, credit and asset-liability profile risks into consideration. This not only helps us to manoeuvre through various situation smoothly but also helps us to navigate the volatility and take necessary portfolio changes at ease.

Q5. How is technology changing the way fixed income markets operate, and what opportunities does this present?

Ans: While tech has come leaps and bounds, for fixed income markets it still largely remains at nascent stage, fixed income market markets still remain very traditional phone market. There lies lot of opportunities in fixed income market for technology development aspect.

Q6. What is the current market sentiment among investors regarding fixed income, and how do you see it evolving?

Ans: Fixed income market outlook has been changing rapidly of-late with market rates moving sharply in anticipation of evolving macros. While the sentiments are increasingly turning upbeat, investors seem to have possibly missed out on a large part of the rally so far, at least judging by incremental flows in debt mf schemes. Some scepticism till remains with many contemplating if the rally is done or there could be further drop in yields. In our view there is still scope in fixed income market, which may once again positively surprise the investors.